Over the past few weeks, an unusually wet rainy season has caused destructive floods across Sudan. Tens of thousands of people displaced by the Sudanese civil war have been affected and tens of thousands more were displaced by the floodwaters sweeping their homes away. This has added to the suffering of the Sudanese people who have faced severe shortages of food, medicines, shelter and other basics since the start of conflict in April 2023.

Meanwhile, in Gaza, high temperatures and the lack of access to fresh water and sanitation have made life miserable for the nearly 2 million Palestinians displaced by war. The hot weather has also facilitated the spread of infectious diseases.

These serious developments in Sudan and Gaza make clear how extreme weather related to climate change can exacerbate already severe humanitarian crises caused by conflicts. These are not the only places where war meets climate change and results in humanitarian disasters.

At the end of 2023, the United Nations estimated that 117.3 million people were displaced worldwide, with 68.3 million displaced internally. The main cause of displacement is conflict, but climate-change-related disasters, such as storms, floods, droughts and wildfires, also left some 20.3 million people homeless last year.

More than a factor of displacement, climate change acts as a threat multiplier that intensifies resource competition, worsens conflicts, deepens social and economic inequalities, and increases vulnerability.

That is why climate action must be a part of the strategy for integrated humanitarian, development, and peace interventions across the world, especially in conflict-ridden regions like the Middle East, where climate change is expected to further destabilise already fragile societies.
 

In the coming years, droughts, water shortages, and extreme weather events are likely to increase displacement, placing additional pressure on weakened public systems and worsening living conditions for millions.

Recurring droughts contributed to the displacement of almost 140,000 people in Iraq as of March 2024, according to IOM estimates. In Yemen, 240,000 people were newly displaced in 2023, mostly due to floods, on top of the 4.5 million people displaced by the ongoing conflict.

Moving faster to reduce the impact of climate change, in line with the Paris Agreement, is essential. But for vulnerable and fragile communities, it is equally important to help them build resilience and capacity to adapt, so we can minimise, address and even avert displacement and forced migration.

The recently concluded Aswan Forum, highlighted the urgent need to address the effects of climate and conflict. The topic was prominent in discussions in Egypt at COP27, in the UAE at COP28, and will be again in Azerbaijan at the upcoming COP29.

Yet, so far, support for action is falling short. In the Arab region, six emerging countries— three of which are conflict-affected— received only 6 percent of the climate finance support provided for the Arab region over the past decade.

Action and financial support could not be more urgent. Around the world, but especially in the MENA region, conflicts are becoming more protracted and complex, enmeshed in systems of weak governance, inequalities, and environmental degradation.

The consequences of those complex conflicts are also growing more dire. Evidence suggests that countries emerging from civil war require an average of 14 years to recover economically and 25 years to rebuild systems and institutions.

Ongoing climate challenges, on top of the growing humanitarian needs in these conflict-affected countries, are only going to make peacebuilding, recovery and development even more challenging.

A more proactive and preventive approach is needed across the international community. We must invest in and prioritise prevention.

We must – equitably – reap the benefits of responsible innovation, using technology, promote peaceful and inclusive societies, provide access to justice for all, and build effective, accountable institutions to harness the power of peace and development.

We will never truly adapt to all climate change impacts without effective peace and an end to the long-standing and recurring conflicts that have driven so much displacement, especially in Africa. If the nations of the world are truly serious about meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, leaders in the world must step up and help end the wars.

The intersection of climate change, conflict, and displacement is a complex and growing challenge that requires a coordinated global response. By acting early, investing in resilience, building governmental capacities or structures, and integrating climate action with humanitarian and development efforts, we can work towards a future where migration is a choice, not a necessity.

By Othman Belbesi, IOM's MENA Regional Director